What Is Right Vs. Making Money
By Murray Coleman | August 16, 2009
By keeping UNG closed, its manager is creating a classic dilemma: How much is taking the moral high ground really worth?
John Hyland, manager of the U.S. Natural Gas Fund (NYSE Arca: UNG), might be taking the right stance from an ethical perspective.
But that seems to be putting investors in a highly unprofitable position, at least in the short term.
At least, that's the take I get after reading a pair of interesting columns on the topic by our team of analysts.
On the one hand, as our research director Dave Nadig points out, the motives of UNG's John Hyland in refusing to open the ETF to new creation units (i.e., new investment) is understandable. It's also a worthy stance that investors shouldn't take out on him ... rather, as Nadig notes, investors should turn their frustration on political types and confusion over how commodity pools are regulated. (You can read the column here.)
But Matt Hougan, our director of analytics, raises another interesting question. His new column "Time To Dump UNG?" today begs the question of whether taking the high moral ground will prove to be much consolation to investors. (You can read the column here.)
Hougan looks at the four most likely scenarios for UNG as long as it continues to trade like a closed-end fund (and produce huge discounts to its net asset value). It's a very straightforward, logical assessment.
Not surprisingly, the outcome doesn't bode well for investors holding shares of UNG. It's interesting that while other analysts seem to be caught up in the fundamental and/or technical factors impacting natural gas markets—and implying that those are the main considerations for whether or not to keep UNG—Hougan raises a starkly different view.
With such a transparent instrument at their disposal, investors need to consider the practical limitations this (sort of) ETF now operates under. The structural no-man's land that UNG has entered, and chosen to remain in, cuts through the normal valuation methods used to analyze investments.
Does it also transcend the whole moral morass that UNG seems to have stuck its investors in for the time being?
Murray Coleman is editor of IndexUniverse.com. He welcomes comments and suggestions at: mcoleman@indexuniverse.com.
